Stress-test a decision against optimistic, realistic, and worst-case futures
I need to think through how this could play out: [problem].
Map out three futures — best case, most likely case, and worst case. For each one, spell out what has to be true for it to happen, how likely it is, what's risky about it, what opportunities it opens up, what I'd need to do, early signs I'd see it coming, and where it probably ends up.
Then tell me which strategy holds up best across all three, and where I'd want a backup plan just in case.
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